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There will be new bottom lumber price and 15 years of very robust building …


Last year in October, the price reached a high of around $1,000 mfbm. The previous high was around $550 in June of 2018, which lasted literally two weeks. In October and November 2020, we had the price up to almost $1,000 which lasted six weeks.
Then, as is usual in December, the price went down, which is normal for the end of the year. But in the first week of January this year it came back up higher.
The normal seasonal price increase is from around February to April, because the large builders and the retailers pre-order so they have their wood in May and June when building really starts. So normally around now the price is flat or goes lower. Unless there are wildfires, or storms, or labour issues.

— Madison’s lumber reporter

Before Covid we were worried there would be a recession. I can’t see how a recession would happen now. Inflation, yes. But if people go back to work, if there is a lot of employment and the pay is good, there will not be inflation. It will be a time of growth.
If that is the case, there will be a new bottom normal lumber price and 15 years of very robust building for this new demographic. There are huge amounts of people who are entering the age of being home buyers.